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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Sep 25 2018 10:01 am


 

Day 1

D4Friday Sep 28 2018 - Saturday Sep 29 2018 D7Monday Oct 1 2018 - Tuesday Oct 2 2018
D5Saturday Sep 29 2018 - Sunday Sep 30 2018 D8Tuesday Oct 2 2018 - Wednesday Oct 3 2018
D6Sunday Sep 30 2018 - Monday Oct 1 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
        

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Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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